1Q’19 World Electronic Equipment – Growth by Sector
Here is our very preliminary first estimate of 1Q 2019 global growth of electronic equipment sales by sector.
Total electronic equipment growth slowed to near zero (Chart 1).
- Annualized growth was +4.5% but only +0.2% in the first quarter of 2019 vs. the same quarter last year (Chart 2).
- Custer Consulting Group estimates electronic equipment growth in two ways:
- compilation of regional data from the U.S. Europe, Japan, Taiwan/China and South Korea
- composite of the quarterly sales of over 213 global publicly traded OEMs
- Both of these approaches produce similar results – confirming a clear first quarter slowdown (Chart 3).
- Chart 4 gives a VERY preliminary estimate of 1Q’19 growth of electronic equipment sales by type. Military and automotive are the major growth sectors (Chart 4).
Source: Custer Consulting Group
JEITA just released February Japanese domestic electronics production:
- Electronic equipment production rose seasonally but declined on an annualized basis (Charts 5 & 6).
- IC production is plummeting and discrete production is declining slowly (Chart 7).
- Semiconductor and electronic equipment shipments are both contracting “in sync” (Chart 8).
- SEMI equipment shipments are declining, but with sharp seasonal spikes (Chart 9).
- Flat panel equipment shipments continue to weaken (Chart 10).
- Passive component production continues to decline from its November 2018 recent peak (Chart 11).
- Japan domestic PCB production has been relatively flat for over two years (Chart 12) and its current 3/12 growth rate signals near-term, ongoing declines (Chart 13) as the 3/12 is below 1.0.
- Domestic device and component production are both contracting (Chart 14).
- The Japan PMI leading indicator points to further PCB production contraction (Chart 15).
The U.S. Commerce Department just released its March “Durable Goods” report with preliminary information on domestic shipments, orders and inventories.
- Electronic equipment book/bill is hovering near 1.0 (Chart 16).
- Both orders and shipments are growing (3/12>1.0) but at a slowing pace (Chart 17).
- In March electronic equipment orders increased slightly but shipments weakened (Chart 18).
- Defense capital goods orders rebounded (Chart 19).
- Aircraft shipments were sequentially flat (Chart 20) and orders declined (Chart 21) but the full impact of the Boeing 737 issues is yet to show.
- Communication equipment orders rose modestly (Chart 22) but computer shipments & orders weakened further (Chart 23).
- Semiconductor shipments to North America continue to correct downward as their 3/12 growth is well below electronic equipment (Chart 24).