Gartner Says Worldwide Smartphone Sales Will Grow 3% in 2020
Middle East and North Africa, Mature Asia/Pacific and Greater China Will Each Register Over 5% Growth
“2019 was a challenging year for smartphone vendors, primarily due to oversupply in the high-end sector in mature markets and longer replacement cycles overall,” said Annette Zimmermann, research vice president at Gartner. “However, in 2020, the market is expected to rebound with the introduction of 5G network coverage in more countries and as users who may have delayed their smartphone purchases until 2020 in expectation of price reductions begin buying again.”
Gartner forecasts that sales of 5G mobile phones will total 221 million units in 2020 — which will account for 12% of overall mobile phone sales — and more than double in 2021, to 489 million units. “The commercialization of 5G phones will accelerate in 2020. 5G phones costing under $300 have been announced, so sales growth of 5G phones is expected to exceed that of 4G phones over twelve months,” said Ms. Zimmermann.
From a regional perspective, the Middle East and North Africa, mature Asia/Pacific and Greater China (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong) will exhibit the highest growth rates in 2020, at 5.9%, 5.7% and 5.1%, respectively (see Table 1).
Table 1:
Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Region, 2019-2021 (Thousands of Units)
| Region | 2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
| Eastern Europe | 48,468 | 48,532 | 49,121 |
| Emerging Asia/Pacific | 363,643 | 376,784 | 396,394 |
| Eurasia | 48,612 | 50,915 | 52,860 |
| Greater China | 411,351 | 432,328 | 426,002 |
| Japan | 31,866 | 32,273 | 33,027 |
| Latin America | 129,830 | 125,635 | 122,963 |
| Mature Asia/Pacific | 30,095 | 31,802 | 31,234 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 73,872 | 78,226 | 75,604 |
| North America | 152,857 | 155,350 | 158,618 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 90,103 | 91,917 | 93,169 |
| Western Europe | 144,141 | 147,457 | 150,206 |
| Total | 1,524,838 | 1,571,219 | 1,589,198 |
Source: Gartner (January 2020)
Strong demand for 5G phones in general, together with expectations of Apple’s first 5G iPhone, will bolster demand for smartphones, particularly in Asia/Pacific and Greater China. In terms of smartphone sales, Greater China and emerging Asia/Pacific will maintain their No. 1 and No. 2 positions globally in 2020, with respective sales of 432.3 million and 376.8 million smartphones.
