Silicon Wafer Market Outlook – A Dynamic Between Equipment Investment and DRAM Pricing

The silicon wafer market showed promising signs of recovery in Q2 2024, bouncing back after a prolonged downturn. The growth is fueled by seasonal factors and strong demand from investments in AI data centers, however, the consumer, automotive, and industrial segments are experiencing a slower pace of recovery.

Historically, year-over-year (YoY) growth in semiconductor equipment investments tends to hit a low point before rebounding and typically contributing to an upward trend in wafer shipments. Figure 1 depicts this trend since 2001, with the only exceptions to wafer shipments following the rebound of fab equipment spending coming in the periods of the second and third quarters in 2002 and 2013, which are highlighted in gray.

Figure 1

* Notes

   1) Data source: SEMI WWSEMS and SMG wafer shipments data
   2) For semiconductor equipment spending, data from 2001 to 2024 is based on WWSEMS wafer processing equipment billing data
   3) Equipment spending is updated through August 2024

This pattern underscores the crucial role of equipment investments in expanding production capacity and driving wafer demand. Following the rebound in equipment investment growth rates observed in 2024, projections indicate continued growth into 2025. This recovery in investments is expected to translate into increased wafer shipments, reinforcing a positive outlook for the silicon wafer market’s sustained growth.

Additionally, the influence of DRAM Blended ASP (Average Selling Price) growth trends on wafer demand is significant. The historical data in Figure 2 shows that when DRAM ASP growth rates peak and then decline, wafer shipment growth tends to slow down after a lag.

Figure 2

* Remarks

   1) Data source: SEMI SMG wafer shipments data and the Bank of Korea
   2) DRAM ASP is updated through September 2024.

With DRAM pricing potentially entering a downward trend in early 2025, this poses a key risk to the pace of the wafer market’s recovery. Looking ahead, wafer shipment growth is expected to vary by wafer type and diameter, with low to mid-double-digit growth projected for 2025, mid-to-high single-digit growth for 2026, and a notable slowdown in 2027. This forecast reflects evolving demand dynamics and ongoing market adjustments.

In conclusion, the sustained recovery of the silicon wafer market hinges on a combination of increasing semiconductor equipment investments, the stabilization of raw material inventory levels among chipmakers, and careful monitoring of DRAM pricing trends. While the current upward trend in equipment investments is a positive driver for wafer shipments, the potential deceleration of DRAM Blended ASP growth poses a significant downside risk. If DRAM pricing exerts a sustained negative influence, it could shorten both the amplitude and duration of the current wafer market upcycle more than anticipated.

This report not only examines these key investment and shipment dynamics but also provides an in-depth analysis of broader market trends, including supply-demand balances and pricing dynamics. By addressing these interconnected factors, it offers a comprehensive and forward-looking perspective on the long-term growth potential of the silicon wafer market.

SEMI’s Silicon Wafer Market Monitor Report offers unique insights into global silicon wafer shipments, supply and demand dynamics, and average selling price (ASP) projections. This comprehensive quarterly report breaks down silicon shipments by region and wafer size, including 300mm, 200mm, and 150mm wafers, providing a detailed view of the market landscape.

Semiconductor manufacturers, investors, and industry analysts rely on this report as an essential tool for making informed business decisions and exploring the latest data and trends shaping the future of the semiconductor industry.

Download a sample of the Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor report.

For more information on the report or to subscribe, please contact the SEMI Market Intelligence Team at mktstats@semi.org. Details on SEMI market data are available at SEMI Market Data.

Sungho Yoon is Principal Analyst on the SEMI Market Intelligence team.