China’s Exports Surge to 27-Month High Amid Potential Trump Tariff Threat
China’s exports showed a significant rebound in October, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) on November 7, marking the highest growth rate since July 2022.
The total export value, measured in USD, reached approximately $309 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, well above the previous month’s 2.7% growth. Imports totaled around $213.34 billion, representing a 2.3% year-on-year decline, which was a notable improvement compared to the 7.2% drop in the prior month. The trade surplus stood at $96 billion, the third-highest monthly record.
By destination, exports to the United States rose by 8.1% year-on-year, up 2.2% from the prior month, while exports to the European Union grew by 12.7%, driven in part by a rush to export ahead of anticipated trade barriers.
On the product level, crude oil imports declined by 9% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, indicative of weak domestic demand. Steel exports surged by 24.4%, showing a 13.1% increase over the prior period, pointing to excess production capacity in China’s industrial sector. Electronic exports, China’s largest category to the U.S., increased by 13.7% year-on-year, expanding by 10.7% from the previous month, though mobile phone exports declined by 0.7%, the only decline within the electronics segment.
In summary, expectations of higher tariffs on Chinese goods by the incoming U.S. administration and rising trade barriers against Chinese steel and electric vehicles have driven Chinese exporters to accelerate shipments. While this may support GDP growth, reliance on exports alone is unlikely to resolve broader economic challenges.
November 8 marks the final day of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee session, with markets closely watching for potential policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand.
